Mortgage Rates Fell for a Third Straight Week. Then a Strong Jobs Report Raised the Odds of a Fed Hike.

1.Rates: a third straight weekly decline

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% for the week of November 5, down from 7.24% a week earlier and 7.40% on October 8 and 15, the highest weekly readings of 2026. It was the third straight weekly decline. A year earlier, the rate was 6.22%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%, down from 6.60% a week earlier and 5.50% a year ago ^[1].

How the survey works: Freddie Mac averages the rates on purchase-mortgage applications submitted through its Loan Product Advisor system from Thursday through Wednesday (this week, October 29 to November 4). The loans are conventional, conforming, single-family, and owner-occupied, typically for borrowers with good to excellent credit and 20% down ^[1].

Mortgage rates track long-term bond yields, especially the 10-year Treasury, more closely than the Fed's short-term rate. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.84% on November 5, down from its 2026 high of 5.31% on October 5, in our review of the U.S. Treasury's daily data ^[6]. Mortgage rates have followed, but more slowly.

Mortgage News Daily attributes much of the recent decline to a sell-off in technology stocks, which pushed money into bonds. On November 5 it noted the Nasdaq was roughly 14% below its October highs and warned that "any miraculous bounce in stocks would likely prompt a similar correction in rates" ^[7]. In our view, that matters: relief that comes from market stress, rather than from cooling inflation, can reverse quickly.

2.The jobs report and the Fed: why the relief may not last

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 6 ^[2]:

• Payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, compared with an average monthly gain of 48,000 over the prior 12 months.
• Revisions added a combined 84,000 jobs to August and September.
• The unemployment rate was 4.1%, little changed, and has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month, to $38.00, and 3.1% over 12 months.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 17, to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since July 2023 ^[4]. It held that range on October 28 by a 10–2 vote; Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred another quarter-point increase. The statement said "inflation remains elevated" ^[3]. The next meeting, which includes new economic projections, is December 8–9 ^[13].

After the jobs report, fed funds futures implied a 76.8% probability of a quarter-point increase at the December meeting, up from 66.9% a day earlier and 70.7% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch as of 8:16 a.m. CT on November 6 ^[5]. As of Friday morning, Mortgage News Daily's rate-trend gauge showed mortgage-bond prices slightly lower, which it said would likely have minimal impact on rates that day ^[8].

A year ago: federal funds target range on November 5, 2025 ^[4]; 10-year Treasury yield on November 5, 2025 ^[6]; Freddie Mac's 30-year average for the week of November 6, 2025 ^[1].

The Fed's target range is exactly where it was a year ago, yet the average 30-year mortgage rate is nearly a full point higher. The difference is the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.67 point over the same period. That is why "the Fed cut rates" or "the Fed raised rates" headlines do not translate one-for-one into mortgage rates.

Strong hiring and elevated inflation give the Fed room to raise rates again, and expectations of tighter policy can push long-term yields up. If the 10-year yield turns higher, the three-week decline in mortgage rates could reverse. The next test is the October Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, November 10 ^[12].

3.Financing: what the easing is worth, and why ARMs are back

Take a hypothetical $800,000 home with 20% down, so a $640,000 loan on a 30-year fixed rate:

Illustrative calculation: $800,000 price, 20% ($160,000) down payment, $640,000 loan, 30-year fixed term, Freddie Mac national average rates ^[1]. Differences are computed from unrounded payments. Principal and interest only; excludes property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance, and maintenance. Not a rate quote or an offer of credit.

Redfin's measure points the same way. Its seasonally adjusted median monthly mortgage payment was $2,777 in the four weeks ending November 1, a five-week low and down from a peak of $2,811 in early October, but still 11.1% higher than a year earlier. Redfin calculated it at a 7.24% mortgage rate ^[10].

More borrowers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages. In the Mortgage Bankers Association's survey for the week ending October 30, ARMs were 11.4% of applications, the highest share since September 2025. MBA's average contract rate on a 5/1 ARM was 6.29% with 1.00 point, compared with 7.30% with 0.75 point on a 30-year fixed loan at or below $832,750 ^[9]. Mike Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist, said "more borrowers are choosing ARMs in this environment to lower their initial payments" ^[9].

Illustrative calculation: $800,000 price, 20% ($160,000) down payment, $640,000 loan, 30-year term, MBA weekly average contract rates for the week ending October 30, 2026 ^[9]. The ARM payment applies only to the first five years and is computed on a 30-year amortization; it does not include the difference in points and fees. Principal and interest only; excludes property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance, and maintenance. Not a rate quote or an offer of credit.

San Diego loan sizes. The 2026 baseline conforming loan limit is $832,750, but San Diego County's one-unit limit is $1,104,000, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency ^[11]. In MBA's survey, loans above $832,750 averaged 7.20%, below the 7.30% average for loans at or below that amount ^[9]. MBA's larger-loan category is not the same as any single loan program, so ask lenders to quote high-balance conforming, jumbo, and ARM options side by side on total cost.

The three-week easing saves this example buyer about $96 a month. That helps, but it recovers only about a fifth of the roughly $503 jump from a year ago to the October peak, and the payment is still about $407 higher than a year ago. An ARM can close more of that gap at the start, which is why its share is rising. It also moves the rate risk from the lender to the borrower after year five. For a buyer who expects to sell or refinance within the fixed period and could carry the worst-case payment, that trade can make sense. For a buyer stretching to qualify, it usually does not. Run this example with your own numbers in the USIG Mortgage estimate (a tool from our publisher)

4.Housing: payments dip, demand stays thin

Redfin's weekly report for the four weeks ending November 1, published November 5 ^[10]:

• Median sale price: $388,604, down 0.4% year over year, the third straight weekly decline after three years of increases.
• Pending sales: 275,484, down 16.4% year over year and 0.6% from the week before, the lowest in Redfin's records, which go back to 2021. They fell year over year in every metro Redfin analyzed among the 50 most populous, for the fourth week in a row.
• San Diego: metro pending sales were down 26.9% year over year, the second-largest decline among those 50 metros, behind Seattle (−30.5%).
• Supply: new listings fell to 346,795, down 4.6% year over year and the lowest since January. Active listings were up 2.1%, and months of supply rose to 4.6 from 4.0; Redfin considers 4 to 5 months balanced.
• Negotiation: 21.2% of listings had a price drop, up from 20.6% a year earlier, and the median home spent 50 days on the market.

MBA's survey showed the same caution among borrowers. Applications fell 1.2% for the week ending October 30. The unadjusted Purchase Index was 19% lower than a year earlier, and the Refinance Index was 60% lower ^[9].

Three weeks of slightly lower rates have not brought buyers back yet. Payments are still well above last year's, and many households are waiting for clarity on rates and prices. In San Diego, where contract activity has fallen faster than the nation's, well-qualified buyers have more room to negotiate on price, credits, and terms than they have had in years.

5.What to do now

• Buyers — lock or float? If you are under contract and the payment works at today's rate, locking removes the risk that rates jump after the November 10 inflation report or the December 8–9 Fed meeting. Floating is a bet that bond yields keep falling. Ask your lender how long the lock lasts, what an extension costs, and whether a float-down option is available. Compare a 30-year fixed, a 15-year, and an ARM on total cost, not just the first payment.
• Sellers: buyers' payments dipped but are still about 11% higher than a year ago, by Redfin's measure. Price to closed sales from the last 60 to 90 days. Ask a loan officer to compare a price cut with an equal credit toward the buyer's rate; in some cases the credit lowers the buyer's payment more.
• Residential investors: underwrite at today's rate, then test 0.5 point higher. If you use an ARM or a debt-service-coverage (DSCR) loan, match the fixed period to your expected hold and model the payment after the reset. If a deal works only with a refinance at lower rates, it does not work yet. Our publisher's Financing Tool & Analysis and Residential Investment Analyzer run these comparisons on a specific property.
• Real estate professionals: clients will hear "rates are falling" and "the Fed may hike" in the same week. Explain that both can be true. Set lock-timing expectations when the contract is signed, not the week before closing.

What to watch

• Tue, Nov. 10October Consumer Price Index, 8:30 a.m. ET ^[12]. A hot reading would strengthen the case for a December hike.
• Thu, Nov. 12Freddie Mac's weekly survey ^[14]: does the 30-year average fall for a fourth straight week from 7.18%, or does the jobs report show up in rates?
• Fri, Nov. 13October Producer Price Index, 8:30 a.m. ET ^[12].
• Late NovemberThe Federal Housing Finance Agency's 2027 conforming loan limits. Last year's were announced on November 25 ^[11].
• Dec. 4 and Dec. 8–9The November jobs report ^[2], then the Fed's decision and new projections ^[13].

Are your buyers asking about adjustable-rate loans again, or are they waiting for rates to fall further? Send us your take.

Plan on today's rate. Decide your lock strategy early. Then make the decision.

Editorial notes

1. Rate surveys differ. Freddie Mac (weekly average of loan applications, Thursday to Wednesday), Mortgage News Daily (daily rate index), and MBA (weekly average contract rates, with points) measure different things over different periods. We do not combine them.
2. Rates have dates. The 7.18% figure is Freddie Mac's weekly national average for November 5, 2026. It is not a personal rate quote or a guarantee of what a borrower can get.
3. Market odds move constantly. The 76.8% CME FedWatch figure is as of 8:16 a.m. CT on November 6, 2026. It is a market-implied probability, not a forecast by the Fed or by us.
4. Jobs data are preliminary. BLS revises each month's payroll estimate twice. Redfin's weekly data are also subject to revision.
5. Our calculations. The payment examples, the ARM comparison, the 2026 high in the 10-year yield, and the year-over-year changes in the chart are our own calculations from the cited data.
6. Analysis is labeled. Sections marked "What it means," "Hidden risk," and "Our view" are our interpretation of the reported data, not guarantees about future prices or rates.

Sources

1. Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey (November 5, 2026, release and weekly history since 1971)
2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — The Employment Situation, October 2026 (November 6, 2026)
3. Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, October 28, 2026
4. Federal Reserve — Open market operations: FOMC target range changes (updated September 16, 2026)
5. CME Group — CME FedWatch (data as of November 6, 2026, 8:16 a.m. CT)
6. U.S. Department of the Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026 and 2025
7. Mortgage News Daily — Another Decent Drop as Mortgage Rates Move Under 7.2% (November 5, 2026)
8. Mortgage News Daily — Daily mortgage rate index and rate-trend gauge (November 5–6, 2026)
9. Mortgage Bankers Association — Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey (November 4, 2026; week ending October 30)
10. Redfin — Homebuyers Get Some Relief as Prices Decline For Third Straight Week, Monthly Payments Dip (November 5, 2026; four weeks ending November 1)
11. Federal Housing Finance Agency — FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026 (November 25, 2025) and county list
12. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Release schedule, November 2026
13. Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendar
14. Freddie Mac — PMMS publication calendar

All figures checked against the original publishers on November 6, 2026. General information only, not legal, tax, investment, or lending advice.