The Realty Gazette: Real Estate Market Intelligence

California Desk · Latest Edition

Office Loan Delinquencies Rose Again in October. The Commercial Refinancing Test Is Here.

Trepp's CMBS delinquency rate dipped to 7.87%, but office rose to 12.33% and two of the largest new delinquencies were in California. Plus: what Props. 1 and 37 mean.

Watch the 1:38 brief. Rates holding near late-September lows, rising office loan delinquencies, the commercial refinancing test, and what to watch this week. AI-generated presenter; content written and fact-checked by The Realty Gazette.

The Takeaway · Our view

October's dip in commercial delinquencies is a cure, not a recovery. Underwrite every deal and every refinance at today's rates, not hoped-for ones.

Read the full edition →

The Gazette AdvisoryFrom the editors of The Realty Gazette

This week: who it affects, and what to do

Buyers and borrowers: Rates are holding near their lowest level since late September, ahead of Tuesday's inflation report. Have a lock plan before you write an offer. Prop. 37's loan program is not running yet, so don't wait on it.

Sellers and owners: Commercial owners with loans due in 2026 or 2027: start refinance talks early and plan for a possible paydown. Home sellers: buyers are still payment-sensitive, so price to recent closed sales.

Investors: Underwrite every deal, and every refinance, at today's rates, not hoped-for ones. Distress is spreading beyond office to retail and apartments; that creates openings only at prices that work with today's debt costs.

Real estate professionals: Expect questions on Props. 1 and 37 and on the new appraisal report format. Explain what is known, what isn't yet, and build slack into appraisal timelines.

General guidance, not personal financial, legal, or lending advice.

Ask the Gazette. Have a question about buying, selling, financing, or investing in California real estate? Send it in; we may answer it in a future edition. Email the Gazette

The numbers that matter · November 9, 2026

7.87%CMBS delinquency rate, all property types, October 2026Down from 8.02% in September, driven largely by one $975 million loan returning to current (Trepp)

12.33%Office CMBS delinquency rate, October 2026Up 17 basis points in a month; retail up 63 basis points to 7.21% (Trepp)

$875BCommercial and multifamily mortgages scheduled to mature in 202617% of $5.0 trillion outstanding; $652 billion more scheduled in 2027 (MBA)

13.6%San Diego office vacancy, third quarter 202613.8% in Q2; net absorption −157,000 sq. ft. (CBRE)

$25BProp. 37 bond authority for a state loan program for buyers of new homes62.2% yes in unofficial results as of Nov. 8 (CA Secretary of State)

$11.25BProp. 1 housing bond for affordable rentals, veterans' loans, and more60.9% yes in unofficial results as of Nov. 8 (CA Secretary of State)

California Desk

Residential, commercial, and financing in every edition.

California Edition No. 4 · November 9, 2026
Office Loan Delinquencies Rose Again in October. The Commercial Refinancing Test Is Here.
Trepp's CMBS delinquency rate dipped to 7.87%, but office rose to 12.33% and two of the largest new delinquencies were in California. Plus: what Props. 1 and 37 mean.

Earlier briefs

Residential Brief No. 3 · November 6, 2026
Mortgage Rates Fell for a Third Straight Week. Then a Strong Jobs Report Raised the Odds of a Fed Hike.
The 30-year average fell to 7.18%, a third straight weekly drop. Then 165,000 new jobs pushed market odds of a December Fed hike to 76.8%. Lock-or-float math inside.
Residential Brief No. 2 · November 2, 2026
U.S. Home-Sale Prices Just Dipped for the First Time in Three Years. What It Means, and What It Doesn't.
The national median sale price slipped 0.1%, the first annual dip in three years. Rates eased to 7.24%, the Fed held, and San Diego affordability fell to 16%.
Residential Brief No. 1 · October 25, 2026
The Housing Market Is Slowing. That Doesn't Automatically Mean Prices Are About to Collapse.
Pending sales hit a record low, California and San Diego sales fell, and rates sit above 7%. Prices are holding anyway. Here is why, and what to do about it.

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Analysis beyond headlines. We explain what the numbers mean and what they do not establish.
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Joke of the Day Why did the office loan bring a calendar to its refinancing meeting?

It wanted everyone to know it had reached maturity.

Office Loan Delinquencies Rose Again in October. The Commercial Refinancing Test Is Here.

The numbers that matter · November 9, 2026

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